PRACTICE · STRATEGIC FORECASTING & DEVELOPMENT
The forward look, instrumented.
Most forecasting pain isn’t modeling — it’s collection, iteration, and the meeting where nobody remembers what changed since version two. This practice automates the cycle’s mechanics so the humans argue about the future, not the spreadsheet.
Nº4
Budget & Forecast Cycle Assistant
Driver requests drafted per owner with prior value and trend attached, responses parsed into the driver sheet, templates populated in code — and an iteration diff memo each round: what changed since v2, who changed it, what it does to the total. Hard rule: the model never invents a driver value. Missing input renders as PENDING, loudly, with a name on it.
Nº11
KPI Anomaly Watch & Narrative Alerts
Threshold breaches, trend breaks, and variance against seasonal norms — detected in code, delivered as one plain paragraph: what moved, how much, against what baseline, and the question the owner should ask. No speculation on cause. No baseline, no alert.
Nº5
Board & Lender Packet Assembly
The monthly story, assembled from the same certified sources as the close — so the packet your board reads and the pack your team built are never two different documents.
SCENARIOS
Cost-of-delay arithmetic, stated
Every roadmap and every deferral gets the same treatment as our own marketing: the monthly cost of not deciding, computed from your model, assumptions in-cell. Urgency as division, not adjectives.
PROOF
Benefits realization — the 60-day readout
Forecasted returns get measured against the baseline sixty days after deployment, in a readout you attend. The scorecard compares against the original projection — the baseline doesn’t move because the story would prefer it.
1
ITERATION DIFF MEMO PER ROUND — WHAT CHANGED, WHO CHANGED IT, WHAT IT DOES TO THE TOTAL
PENDING
THE MODEL NEVER INVENTS A DRIVER VALUE — MISSING INPUTS RENDER LOUDLY, WITH A NAME
60 days
FROM DEPLOYMENT TO MEASURED READOUT — COMPARE OBSERVED RESULTS WITH THE ORIGINAL BASELINE
The forecast keeps recovered capacity separate from cash savings, includes implementation and operating costs, and makes each assumption editable.
Every engagement here starts the same place.
BENEFITS DEPEND ON YOUR BASELINE, ADOPTION, AND REVIEW EFFORT. RISK INDICATORS ARE EVALUATED SEPARATELY FROM CAPACITY AND CASH.
THE LETTER · FIELD NOTES BY PAUL MATTSON
One useful finding.
The assumptions included.
Reporting, data and the practical work of making a business run better. Signed, dated and written to be used.